I've found Ben Johnson's key to EPA — be good at football

Ben Johnson has the running head start of not only being the new Bears head coach, but not being Matt Eberflus — and he’s making the most of it. 

He’s smart, personable, articulate and comfortable in the spotlight, and at this point everything he says is like a breath of fresh air. Even the cliche shot at the Packers (“I kind of enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice year.”) had a different ring to it. And while “get comfortable being uncomfortable” isn’t that much different from Eberflus’ “get your track shoes on” as a crowd-pleasing phrase, it resonated much better coming from Johnson. 

And it should. Let the record show that Johnson has credentials as the Lions’ play-calling offensive coordinator to validate the authenticity of everything he says. He inherited a Lions offense ranked 25th in scoring and finished fifth, fifth and first in scoring the past three seasons — with personnel that he can reasonably replicate in Chicago, rather than a once-in-a-lifetime stroke of good fortune. (It’s not like Brian Billick parlaying Randy Moss into the Ravens’ job in 1998.)

But even reporters who cover the Bears on a regular basis are aware that the Ben Johnson Effect is magnifying the impact of everything that’s going on at Halas Hall these days. When Johnson explained the importance of Expected Points Added over turnover-differential last week, I thought the formula for EPA was e=mc2.

Alas, though EPA is a relative statistic, the theory of relativity it is not. EPA is an analytic that measures production relative to the expected result of any play — based on down-and-distance and the yard line. A five-yard gain on third-6 often results in a punt; a five-yard gain on third-and-4 extends the drive. On a stat sheet, those yards are the same. EPA gives greater value to the gain that earned the first down. (It’s like if two quarterbacks have equal statistics, but one’s interception came on fourth down at midfield, while the other’s was returned 99 yards for a touchdown. In the gamebook, their passer ratings are equal. In reality, one quarterback had a significantly more damaging performance.)

So even if Johnson is correct that EPA is a better indicator of NFL success than turnover differential, it’s not quite like a magic formula. EPA is a measurement of success. You improve your EPA by being good at football. 

Johnson’s EPA/turnover discussion highlights a Caleb Williams issue that was well-known last season — Williams’ low interception rate (including a franchise and NFL rookie record of 255 consecutive passes without a pick) came at a cost in production. While Williams’ 1.1% interception rate was third in the NFL, his 6.3 yards per attempt was 26th. 

Williams went nine consecutive games without an interceptions. Not only were the Bears 0-9 in that span, but his 6.4 yards per attempt during that streak was 26th in the NFL. His 89.7 passer rating was 21st out of 30 quarterbacks with five or more starts in that nine-game span. 

So Johnson is attacking a problem that is well known. Williams needs to be more aggressive and not worry about making mistakes. The Bears were the only team in the NFL without a completion of 50 yards or more last season. Johnson’s Lions offense led the NFL with eight — including completions of 82 (to Jameson Williams against the Bears), 70, 66 and 64 yards. 

And while Jared Goff’s 82-yard touchdown pass to Jameson Williams was a bomb against the Bears, much of the Lions’ big-play success was on run after the catch (RAC). Of those eight 50-yard pass plays, 57.3% of the 490 total yards came after the catch. 

So re-wiring the risk-aversion out of Williams is a big part of Johnson’s job. But an improved offensive line — which would provide the time and the confidence he needs — likely will play an even bigger role. 

Johnson knows he has a lot to work with. On possessions that started in opponent’s territory, the Bears scored nine touchdowns on 15 drives (60%) — the fifth best percentage in the NFL. The Lions were third (64.7%, 11 of 17). 

But on drives that started in their own territory, the Bears were 30th in the NFL (15.0%, 24 of 160). Johnson’s Lions were first (36.8%, 57 of 155). Without those big plays, the Bears lacked the consistency to drive 65 yards or more for a touchdown (12.9%, 18 of 139). 

Johnson has a big job ahead of him, but with a fair chance of success — probably by the time we all figure how to calculate a team’s EPA.